NBA Western Conference Playoff Picture Update: Confusing!
Trying to tell you what games matter. Trying.
The regular season’s almost over and pretty soon we’ll be previewing all of the match-ups and various Slamonline writers will be responsible for their own series. It would be really nice if things were clear and we had some idea of what teams are playing each other, but that’s not how it works this season.
I’ll stick to the West, which has been more like a tight baseball pennant race than an NBA exhibition season. Phoenix was fading, Houston was rising, the Lakers took over, the Hornets took over, Denver got hot, Golden State got cold, San Antonio was San Antonio, Dallas collapsed, Dallas got hot, Utah became the hottest team… where are we?
As of RIGHT NOW these are the seedings with teams left to play:
1. LA Lakers vs. SAC
2. New Orleans vs. LAC, at DAL
3. San Antonio at SAC, vs. UTA
4. Utah vs. HOU, at SAN
5. Houston at UTA, vs. LAC
6. Phoenix vs. GS, vs. POR
7. Dallas vs. NO
8. Denver vs. MEM
9. Golden State at PHX, vs. SEA
I put the games between teams that are involved in head-to-head games in bold. Assume that playoff bound teams will beat those that are going home for the summer. I know, it’s a dangerous assumption, but if any of these teams lose to Memphis or Seattle at this point, they deserve what they get. Which is a slight re-seeding.
Here’s what this all means…
Tonight it’s Golden State at Phoenix. If the Warriors can find a way to win, they stay alive in the picture. A loss, and they’re out cause Denver has the tie breaker over them.
The Lakers should handle their business against the Kings, and lock up the #1 seed. If they don’t do that, then we get a huge mess that will never make sense. Here I go trying to break this down a simply as possible. It is going to get confusing no matter what. Take a deep breath. Read slowly. Do not attempt to operate heavy machinery.
1) New Orleans at Dallas - First we have to assume that the Hornets beat the Clippers. If New Orleans doesn’t go 2-0, then they leave the door open for the Spurs to catch them. If the Lakers do lose to the Kings, the Hornets can sneak back into the #1 spot to face - now this is where it gets interesting - the Hornets winning means Dallas losing. If Dallas loses, then it’s possible Denver or Golden State could catch them and flip the 7/8 seed depending on the tie-breakers involved.
Now, here’s where it really get fun… New Orleans will be playing to win, to go for the #1 seed, but they also have to watch out for the Spurs, who are right beneath them and could catch up. Even if the Lakers clinch, the Hornets still have to worry about their own slippage, losing potential home court in later rounds, or favorable match-ups. To summarize, the Hornets could be playing the Mavs to guarantee that they the Hornets, will be playing the Mavs in the playoffs. Dallas can not raise their position, they can only fall down to #8 with a loss. BUT… a Dallas win over New Orleans would go a long way to locking up the series as #2 NO vs. #7 Dallas.
Basically, it’s going to be New Orleans vs. Dallas in round one. This game could determine if that is a 1/8 series or a 2/7 series. You could see the Mavs as the #8 seed, getting no respect, facing an MVP candidate, and facing the top seed as an underdog. THE SHOE IS ON THE OTHER FOOT!
Of course if the Lakers beat the Kings and the Suns beat the Warriors, the Dallas-NO regular season game would be an exhibition of all bench players.
2) The Utah Jazz games - Again, have to assume that Sacramento will lay down and the Spurs handle them. San Antonio still has a chance to catch New Orleans at the #2 spot, but they could also drop all the way down to 5 or 6. They are in a flat-footed tie with Houston, but have the tie-breaker advantage. Assuming (again) that Houston can beat the Clippers, the San Antonio-Houston race comes down to Utah vs. each of them.
Utah goes to San Antonio and Houston comes to Utah.
Advantage: San Antonio.
Utah is 17-23 on the road, and 36-4 at home. For those of you who have come this far reading this post and are throwing your hands up saying “I don’t care, just line ‘em up, play who ya play!”, the most significant point is that home court for Utah changes EVERYTHING. If they have home court in a series, they could be the favorite against just about anyone. As the road team, who knows.
Here is the key to the whole thing in simplest possible form: If Utah can beat BOTH San Antonio and Houston, they could rise up to the #3 seed, which is significant because if the #2 seed were to fall in round 1, then Utah becomes it and has that home court all the way to the conference finals.
This breakdown of the Western Conference playoffs is funny and accurate for many reasons. One of my favorites is the phrase “Abandon all hope ye who enter here” outside of Energy Solutions Arena. That is what is written on the gates of hell in Dante’s Inferno. Well played!
So there you have it. UTTER CHAOS! I’m 25% more confused now than I was before I started writing this thing.
Tonight:
Houston at Utah
San Antonio at Sacramento
Golden State at Phoenix
Believe it or not, we might actually know something for sure tomorrow morning.
54 Responses to “NBA Western Conference Playoff Picture Update: Confusing!”
Apr.14 at 9:16 am
Flix#12 says:
FIRST !!! GO Warriors !!
Apr.14 at 9:22 am
Bigi says:
Confused!
Apr.14 at 9:23 am
Logan says:
I LOVE THIS GAME! (and miss this slogan)
Apr.14 at 9:23 am
Bigi says:
First but confused…Lakers better beat the livin’ crap out of the Kings…No:Uno!
Apr.14 at 9:24 am
TADOne says:
Um….what?
Apr.14 at 9:26 am
Logan says:
I think the Lakers will handle their business..Kobe wants the last word with Ron Ron….popping jerseys comin up
Apr.14 at 9:28 am
Jukai says:
You know, I hope things stay RIGHT WHERE THEY ARE. Cause that will make for an INCREDIBLE playoff series.
Lakers vs Denver… Kobe versus Iverson highlights this awesome match. Each position seems to match up well, Gasol’s offense vs Marcus Banks defense, and Odom vs Carmello for the ultimate showdown of small forwards who play like power forwards!
New Orleans vs Dallas! Old MVP vs (rightfully so but hopefully not) New MVP! Or you could look at it as a Jason Kidd vs Chris Paul scenerio. Howard vs West, man, this would be a sick series. This would really great show, one to see if Dallas (AKA Dirk) can reclaim its former glory, and two to see if New Orleans is for real! Oh man, then Phoenix vs San Antonio! First round match-up with the most controversial rivalry in the NBA! Shaq vs Duncan, Nash vs Parker! Amare going ape**** (either on the hoop or on Bowen) and enough angry stares by Papovich and D’Antoni to make a nun shutter!
Not to mention Houston vs Utah! Rematch from last year’s seven game series, Houston’s hot and T-Mac’s hungry to get into the second round, but Utah is UNBELIEVABLE on odd days and bad enough to be drowned by T-Mac on even days! And honestly it’s sort of exciting to see which side of Utah shows up! OH MAN PLEASE MAKE THE NBA FINALS STAY EXACTLY LIKE THIS!!
Apr.14 at 9:29 am
Jukai says:
And then we have a possible Lakers vs Phoenix and Utah vs New Orleans second round (best possible scenerio)…. which would pretty much make my head explode. Great… stuff….
Apr.14 at 9:30 am
Tariq says:
What if Davidson win?
Apr.14 at 9:30 am
Jukai says:
Oh yeah, and the east. Well…. uhm…
Apr.14 at 9:31 am
TADOne says:
On a complete side note: If, and for the record, I do not believe it will happen, Kobe gets a tech in his last game of the regular season and reaches 16 total techs, does het get suspended for the 1st game of the playoffs?
Apr.14 at 9:32 am
Tariq says:
I don’t really care who plays whom, but I do feel sad that either Denver or Golden State will miss these epic playoffs. And it wouldn’t be so bad if the East were halfway decent. Which is why I was surprised that Webber and Barkley were against re-configuring the playoff structure a coupla weeks ago on TNT.
Apr.14 at 9:35 am
Tariq says:
TAD: Yes
Apr.14 at 9:36 am
Jukai says:
I’m totally against reconfiguring the playoff structure too, Tariq. Cause that means reconfiguring the entire league to make sure teams play each other evenly (or else Boston would get the #1 spot for years to come by playing in an incredibly easy east conference) and that means extra travel which means players will be more exhausted. I know it sucks that Golden State is out and Atlanta is in, but in fairness this entire fear of being left out of the playoffs has made this year in the west incredibly interesting.
Apr.14 at 9:38 am
Jukai says:
And to add to the point, I’m a little sad Golden State misses out on the playoffs, but on the other hand, I think they’re legitly the worst team out of the nine. At first I thought Houston really didn’t deserve to be there but they have some flashes of some really awesome game. Plus a healthy T-Mac always makes things interesting. That, and them playing Utah makes for the most interesting of scenarios (and now that I’ve said that, Houston will probably be swept).
Apr.14 at 9:40 am
Tariq says:
Jukai: Those are two very good points, but isn’t there some kind of happy medium solution? Like for example there could be a clause that if the eighth seed in the West is X number of games better than the eighth seed in the East then they take their spot in the Eastern playoffs or something…
Apr.14 at 9:42 am
Tariq says:
Jukai: I’m convinced that the ninth team will have proven to be the least deserving out of the Western teams. But their a hell of a lot deserving than ALL the East teams with the exception of the top 2. And MAYBE Orlando.
Apr.14 at 9:46 am
Tariq says:
By the way, that Garbage Time All Stars comic is awesome. And the T-MAc one was strangely poignant. How fitting would it be if he FINALLY got out of the 1st round in THIS of all years? I hope he does.
Apr.14 at 9:46 am
Holly MacKenzie says:
TAD, can’t you see Ron trying something crazy to provoke Kobe? I sort of can. SAM!! This was FANTASTIC. I’m hyped up again!!
Apr.14 at 9:49 am
Jukai says:
Tariq, I know that the east is undeserving and it totally sucks, but you can see why the whole “16 best teams” thing can’t and shouldn’t happen, right?
Apr.14 at 10:01 am
Tariq says:
Jukai: Yes.
Apr.14 at 10:03 am
Tariq says:
Holly: You’re hyped up AGAIN? I don’t think you ever stopped being hyped. It’s kinda scary, actually.
Apr.14 at 10:11 am
Cub Buenning says:
The west is so dope.
The Nuggets played hard for the first 30 mins in SLC, then pretty much packed it in; knowing that if they just could beat Houston, they were looking pretty good.
Apr.14 at 10:15 am
Tariq says:
Cub, you know what impresses me most about the West? It’s not the fact that a 50-win team is gonna be in the lottery. Rather it’s the fact that with 3 games left, the Spurs could have finished first, or drop to sixth. Whereas Boston, Detroit, Orlando and Cleveland have been locked in their respective positions since the industrial revolution. I mean, when’s the last time Rip, Rasheed and Chauncey played a game?
Apr.14 at 10:18 am
Sam Rubenstein says:
after thinking a little more about it… Lakers beating the Hornets was the biggest game of the year as Holly wrote in the post up. But the 2nd biggest game of the year will be Utah at San Antonio. The implications could be NUMEROUS!
This post has less than a 12 hour span of relevance. But if Utah goes on to have a long run, you can come back to it in 2 months and see where they won it by securing more home games.
Apr.14 at 10:18 am
hursty says:
Go rockets
Apr.14 at 10:19 am
Cub Buenning says:
I also love how Dallas, Denver, and Golden State are considered far inferior to the top 6. What is there like 3 games that separate them? Tariq, their national TV game against Toronto yesterday was big.
Apr.14 at 10:21 am
Cub Buenning says:
Love the Inferno references to the Salt Palace/Delta Center. The Nuggets led that game 71-70 midway thru the 3rd, then were abducted by Roman and Albie Grant.
Apr.14 at 10:21 am
Peat says:
^^yesterday^^
Apr.14 at 10:21 am
Cub Buenning says:
If Utah was the #1 seed, book it.
Apr.14 at 10:23 am
TADOne says:
Cub, I’ve been trying to make that point about the 7/8 seeds in Holly’s corner of the Slam universe, but have been getting rebuffed. These teams are closer than people want to recognize.
Apr.14 at 10:25 am
Tariq says:
Cub: Those young Detroit cats are scary. I’m looking forward to the ECF.
Apr.14 at 10:26 am
Cub Buenning says:
Tariq, you’re gonna have to wait! We still have 4 months until the conference finals.
Apr.14 at 10:28 am
Tariq says:
Cub: Yeah, I know…by the time (barring a LeBron gangsta lean) Detroit face Boston, Amir and Stuckey will have become grizzled, battle-hardened vets.
Apr.14 at 10:41 am
TADOne says:
So Amir Johnson will finally be shaving?
Apr.14 at 10:52 am
Tariq says:
TAD:
No, he’ll be giving DeShawn and Drew a run for their money!
Apr.14 at 11:04 am
WhaHuh says:
the Wizards will upset Lebron
Apr.14 at 11:05 am
ciolkstar says:
Kobe is gonna get away with murder (in terms of tecnicals) during the playoffs. Just b/c the refs would never want to one of the L’s biggest stars out of a playoff game. I’d really love for it to happen though.
Apr.14 at 11:11 am
ciolkstar says:
I really like all of Detroit’s young players. They all play with toughnee=ss and have a great model of team unity and defensive committment to work with every day. Once they start getting playoff experience and evelop consistency and confidence in the clutch moments this team will be scary. I wish the Spurs used a similar method of developing a young bench rather than opening a retirement home.
Apr.14 at 11:16 am
Jukai says:
In reality, there will be no upsets in the West. If Denver takes it all, I wont be terribly shocked.
Apr.14 at 11:17 am
Jukai says:
Also, even though I am an AVID Cleveland fan, WhaHuh is right. Wizards in six.
Apr.14 at 11:39 am
TADOne says:
The Wizards are a scary team right now. Not only did they develop their younger guys and bench players while their starters were out, they developed a nice bond on the court as well. Now that they are fully healthy, with Gil coming off the bench, they arguably have the best bench in the East in the playoffs. The Cavs could very well go down in the 1st round.
Apr.14 at 11:51 am
Tariq says:
If Kobe doesn’t get a T next game, the slate is wiped clean for the Playoffs. It doesn’t carry over UNLESS he gets that last technical on the last game of the regular season.
Apr.14 at 11:53 am
Captain America says:
NelliBall, gone fishin’. Gizzards are the mystery meat team with high ceiling.
Apr.14 at 12:00 pm
RV says:
The kings can be dangerous…
Apr.14 at 12:06 pm
matt the jazz fan says:
@Sam: we’re actually better againt playoff teams on the road - i think we might be at or above 0.500. it’s the atlantas and minnesottas of the world that give us the most trouble…
Apr.14 at 12:15 pm
RV says:
the rockets are gonna get swept and blown out the way things are going, they got Bobby jackson out, Battier out, Rafer went out last night, and Tmac still has a bad shoulder
Apr.14 at 12:35 pm
DP and Free Chilly says:
I’m like a punk in a weenie factory right now man! I am so f*ckin excited man. This could be the NBA: where the best F*CKING PLAYOFFS IN HISTORY HAPPEN. no homo on the weenie factory thing too. fnf up.
Apr.14 at 2:32 pm
tealish says:
This was just a mess and highly unnecessary. Sorry, I had to hate.
Apr.14 at 4:34 pm
Marty McFly says:
like cub, said, everyone is making the nuggets and mavs out to be inferior to the rest but theyre only four or so games back…both are wholly capable of an upset in the first or even taking it all. especially if the nuggets catch the hornets in the first round
Apr.14 at 5:12 pm
Bubba Chuck says:
DENVER NUGGETS!
Apr.14 at 11:02 pm
Robbi says:
Why not just wait ’till the playoff seedings are final?
Apr.15 at 2:45 am
chingy says:
guaran-sheed tmac and the rockets don’t make it out of the first round, no matter their seeding/opponent
Apr.15 at 5:21 pm
overtime says:
how hilarious would it have been if dallas had got the 8th seed and the warriors had the 1st seed?