Fantasy Week 9-10: Adios 2007
Some big name point guards are feeling healthy in 2008
A friend of mine recently moved back to the Philadelphia area after a stint out west and we took the time to catch up over the holiday.
While we shopped it up, the Sixers were defending the Wachovia Center against the Heat in a battle for eastern conference mediocrity.
At one point the camera flashed to Mo Cheeks, then Andre Miller, then Lou Williams, then Kyle Korver, and finally Reggie Evans and Louis Amundson standing beside Samuel Dalembert.
My boy nearly jumped out of his chair, “Damn! Can the Sixers get a couple du-rags spinnin’ in the locker room? Or a new barber or something? If I were Ed Stefanski, my first move as GM would be to get a team barber, EARLY!”
I couldn’t argue with him, but Stefanski wasn’t listening. His first move as GM was trading Kyle Korver to the Jazz for Gordon Giricek and a first-round draft pick. Korver should see a spike in value on the Jazz, and be a good source of three balls, while Lou Williams and Willie Green will benefit in Philadelphia.
I picked up Williams because he had been playing well even before the trade and I needed some back- court relief. Even though he is a fringe waiver guy at this point, if you believe all the Andre Miller trade rumors, he is a must own player.
Although it’s impossible to measure or compare levels of grief after losing a loved one, it’s clear that Stephon Marbury was unable to find solace on the basketball court. Marbury’s father passed away December 2nd and although he attempted to come back into the Knicks’ rotation twice during that time, he was reportedly unable to handle the emotions, and shut it down.
The whole situation is taboo because obviously it’s in poor taste to second guess a man who just lost a loved one, but you’ve got to believe other factors were involved in Steph’s absence. At one point Isiah Thomas refused to deny claims that Marbury might shut it down for the rest of the year. Regardless, Steph was back in uniform last night and came off the bench for New York. I’ve totally stopped trying to predict what Isiah is going to do as far as delegating playing time; right now he makes Don Nelson’s rotation appear set in stone. Check to make sure Steph wasn’t dropped in your league by an impatient owner, and if he was, he’s still worth owning.
When I listed Ron Artest as a risky fantasy draft pick in my preview column, I wasn’t referring to bone chips in his elbow that might require shoulder surgery. Never theless it’s another 2-4 weeks that Artest owners will be without the services of the do-it-all forward. In the meantime John Salmons and Francisco Garcia are going to benefit even further for the Kings.
Garcia will certainly provide value but Salmons is the true stud here. He’s been the best roster addition this season and impatient owners who dropped him upon Artest’s initial return to the Sacramento lineup (unfortunately, I was among them) have got to feel ill when they see a stat line like Wednesday’s against the Knicks. Salmons had 32 points, 11 rebounds and 6 assists. Actually, ill doesn’t describe it, when I see Salmons putting in work like that, Clay Davis’s patented line from “The Wire” is far more appropriate.
If you consider that Beno Udrih, Francisco Garcia and John Salmons have all been solid roster additions this season, the Kings are the runaway fantasy sleeper team of the year. Recently joining those three is Mikki Moore, who has come on strong after a very slow start to the season. Kings head coach Reggie Theus has already said Mike Bibby is going to have to earn his starting job when he returns to the team, and praised Bibby’s ability to play both guard positions. To me this is a sign that Beno Udrih will retain his value. With that said you should check your waiver wire to make sure that Bibby isn’t available.
If Randy Foye is still hanging around your waiver wire, he won’t be for long. Foye’s next knee evaluation is Monday the 7th and chances are he will be cleared to practice with the team at this time. If you want him to suit up for your squad, make your move now.
Antonio Daniels returned from injury last night. He should provide a couple months of solid value until Gilbert Arenas returns and may have been dropped in your league. Nothing about Daniels game will stand out but he won’t hurt you in any category, and will be a terrific second or third point guard option. In his return on Wednesday he scored 18 points and added 2 assists, but the key here was the minutes played.
I’ve already given you some names to investigate this week on the waiver wire but let’s take an additional look at some players who should be available in your league:
Nate Robinson – It pains me to have a Knick on this list, and if you decide to add him, do so at your own risk. With that disclaimer out of the way, Nate has been producing this season, and even with Marbury’s return to action Wednesday, he had 19 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists.
Chris Duhon – Duhon was recently promoted to the starting point guard slot in Chicago; however, thus far this hasn’t equaled production. Keep your eye on Duhon but don’t pick him up until he starts to put up some numbers. Ben Gordon is the 6th man but clearly he and Kirk will finish games in Chicago.
Carlos Arroyo – With Jameer Nelson in a tailspin Arroyo has been named the starting point guard in Orlando. After last night’s 16 points, 3 rebounds and 7 assists he is likely to be picked up in a lot of leagues. I like Arroyo’s game and if you have a roster spot, make it happen, but don’t expect too much from him in the long term. The position is ultimately going to be Nelson’s and even though he is slumping right now, I see him returning to form shortly.
Lou Williams – I added Lou after a couple solid outings for the Sixers and after Korver was traded to the Jazz. It’s clear that the 76ers love this kid and really, what’s not to love? He plays hard and has talent worth developing, especially on a rebuilding team. If the Sixers trade Andre Miller he will become an instant stud, but for now, a guy like Arroyo or Daniels will provide more value.
Willie Green – He’s on the bench with a groin injury at the moment but when he returns he’s going to offer owners a nice scoring punch. Green is averaging around 15 ppg and those numbers will only rise with Korver out of town. Don’t expect miracles from him, but his scoring makes him a solid addition.
Andrea Bargnani – He’s one of the year’s most disappointing players but if he’s available in your league he deserves a roster spot. He’s a #1 draft pick and he’s going to continue to get minutes and develop his skills. And yes, I would have said the same thing about Kwame Brown a few years back, so the #1 draft pick theory isn’t a sure thing.
If you’re in a 12 team league or higher, there should be some help in the names mentioned above. Of all the guys listed, I like Antonio Daniels as the most reliable pickup, and Lou Williams as the (Jay Bilas stand up!) guy with the most upside potential.
Happy New Year to everybody, hope you brought 2008 in right. My girlfriend sequestered my Blackberry for the evening as a jump start to her resolution to keep me from checking stats all the time. What a nightmare! This year my resolution is to stop chasing inconsistent waiver pickups like everyone not named Al Jefferson on the Wolves, Dorrell Wright and Sean Williams. It’s just too painful at this point. Talk to you all next week.
25 Responses to “Fantasy Week 9-10: Adios 2007”
Jan.3 at 2:13 pm
The Cool says:
I had to drop Andrea 2000 because his so sporadic. One game he gives me what I need and the next it is like the guy is a walking enigma. I think I will pick up Prince Louie because kid has been on a scoring tear since December. I still can’t believe I traded KG for Lamar Odom and Stephen Jackson. play wit it.
Jan.3 at 2:49 pm
Emry says:
The Cool: He was a super high pick in most leagues too, I know I tried to get him but if you waited until after the 5th, it was too late in most cases. Not sure if he just needs tick or maybe theres a bigger issue. Either way the Dirk comparisons were clearly pre-mature.
Jan.3 at 3:03 pm
Ken says:
I dropped JCN for Wally Sczczbberjherukka. Was that a bad move? JCN was really slumping lately.
Jan.3 at 3:05 pm
Ken says:
Oh, and Louis Williams is still available. Would you recommend him over Sczcberrkiial?
Jan.3 at 3:10 pm
Ben Osborne says:
Emry, what the F is going on with Kyle Lowry. This dude was so clearly better than Stoudamire but couldn’t get real minutes. Now Conley jumps right over him? I’m in a keeper league and thought Lowry would be an occasional contributor this year with a bright future for next year, but if Conley is suddenly the guy in Memphis then I may have to cut ties with Kyle. What are your thoughts?
Jan.3 at 4:11 pm
Emry says:
Ken: I think adding Wally was a good move since Durant is out… Wally is a ball hog and a gunner but he scores some points and knocks down the threes. I like Lou Williams over Wally, they are comparable with Durant out but once he is back Wally has no real value. Lou has nothing but potential. Go with Lou.
Jan.3 at 4:13 pm
Emry says:
Ben: It’s a very odd thing down in Memphis. I don’t think they expected for Lowry to be this good, but can’t really pair him with Conley in the backcourt. Mike’s start last night surprised me and he produced, it’s going to be a nightmare for owners, even after Damon is moved.
Jan.3 at 4:15 pm
Emry says:
Ben: I wouldn’t hold onto Lowry in a keeper league, traditionally there are limits and although I love the ‘Nova product he just isn’t in the right situation right now. I held onto hope for a long time but dropped him recently… I think Daniels, Arroyo, even L. Williams are more attractive options right now off the wire. Even though Lowry is the best talent of all of them.
Jan.3 at 5:00 pm
Ben Osborne says:
Thanks for the insights, Emry. I’m in an 11-team, 14-player/team league, and Daniels, Arroyo, Conley and Williams are all on teams. I guess I’m ready to cut Lowry after this, but I need to get someone decent, who may not exist on our thin wires…
Jan.3 at 5:33 pm
Emry says:
I would love to get a look at that wire… in an 11 team league I’m surprised all those guys are owned… who would you say are the top 5 available guys?
Jan.3 at 5:34 pm
Bryant Reeves says:
I have Salmons and am riding the hot streak, but his value will crash with his inevitable return to the bench. I’m trying to sell high, but no one wants to touch him. The only way he keeps his value is if Bibby + Artest get traded. I can see him at the 3 beside Kevin Martin at the end of the year (hopefully).
Jan.3 at 5:37 pm
Bryant Reeves says:
Ben, how many players do you keep?
Jan.3 at 5:37 pm
Bryant Reeves says:
Emry, what is your prediction regarding Nene?
Jan.3 at 6:02 pm
Emry says:
BR: I think Salmons has done enough to warrant a starting role and I wouldn’t be surprised if they feel even more obliged to move Artest now. Remember when he was a free agent? Teams did go after him. Talented guy. I guess it depends how high you are shooting but I think he has enough value to be traded for someone pretty decent… but he may be worth holding as well.
Jan.3 at 6:05 pm
Emry says:
BR: Good question to Ben, normally it’s 3… that’s why I was advising strongly against it. Nene is so frustrating to own, I had him and dropped him as soon as he went down. He is always out of shape, and when he does get it together he then gets hurt. He also battles K-Mart and E. Najera for tick so I would only pick him up if it’s off the wire and you have an open slot and need boards.
Jan.3 at 7:55 pm
Big L says:
My team needs 3s and Navarro seems to be getting less and less minutes. Who’s the best option: Korver, Daniels, Williams, or Salmons? Thanks Emry.
Jan.3 at 9:13 pm
Bryant Reeves says:
Definitely not Salmons - he only has 23 on the year.
Good advice on Nene, Emry. I’m going to keep him and hope that Kenyon gets hurt and/or they trade Camby
Jan.3 at 9:15 pm
Bryant Reeves says:
you forgot to mention that Salmons also had 6 steals and shot 72% from the floor. Not bad
Jan.3 at 11:16 pm
Ben Osborne says:
Emry, this is the 5th year of our league but the first year there will be keepers. We will keep three players. You can’t keep a 1st or 2nd round pick, and if you do keep you sacrifice two rounds higher next year. So if you drafted a guy in the 7th round and want to keep him, next year you lose your 5th round pick. If you want to keep an undrafted free agent, a la Lowry, it will only cost me a 12th round pick. Of course, as you point out, he might simply not be worth keeping no matter what. Here are the players with the highest apg average currently available in my league: (I’m focusing on assists because that’s what had me liking lowry in the first place) Jason Williams, Anthony Johnson, Steve Blake, Brevin Knight, Jeff McInnis, Marko Jaric,
Damon Stoudamire, Delonte West and Chris Duhon. I’m open to your advice, but yuck.
Jan.3 at 11:16 pm
Emry says:
Big L: Although Salmons doesn’t offer the three ball he is still head and shoulders the best pickup in that bunch. More than likely he’s worth a pickup anyway… For the trey ball it’s Korver in that group, especially with Okur playing like a horses ass this year.
Jan.3 at 11:17 pm
Emry says:
BR: You’re right, I should have mentioned that… really an amazing game. I don’t have the numbers but I wouldn’t be suprised if it was top 10 of the season thus far.
Jan.3 at 11:24 pm
Emry says:
Ben: I see, Lowry may be worth keeping in that case, to me he just seems too talented to sit on the bench, but I don’t think I would sacrifice a bench spot to keep him at this point. Of course those available players are a pile of nothing… AJ will just drive you nuts, Jaric’s time is up with Foye in the wings, Duhon doesn’t play, West plays musical chairs, McInnis is starting right now but I doubt for long, and Blake is losing steam while Jack comes on.
Jan.3 at 11:27 pm
Emry says:
So this would be my strategy… I think I would hold Lowry and keep my finger on the trigger and wait for Damon to get traded. His agent isn’t pleased with his PT and is now “demanding” a trade… it’s just a matter of time and he can still play a bit. Conley is solid but I still like Lowry over him… and that pu-pu later of point guards available is just that, poo poo…. you might also wait for Williams to get healthy in Miami, if he was playing I would suggest him out of that bunch with the same strategy towards a Stoudamire move.
Jan.4 at 8:40 am
Tarzan Cooper says:
brevin knight is going to be solid too, at least for assists. cuz cassell is too injury prone. i recently dropped salmons in one of my winner leagues, but im not worried, i picked up kevin martin. and im already almost in first anyways. hahaha
Jan.4 at 10:37 am
Emry says:
Tarzan: It’s funny how waiver wires work… if you can drop Salmons and pickup Kevin Martin … then your wire is fairly robust. In Ben’s situation it looks like his waiver wire is thinner than Kevin Durant after a back to back set.