Fantasy Week 20: Shut It Down
The Wade aftermath, Bosh’s replacement by committee, and why you shouldn’t sleep on Andy Varejao
If you read this column every week – I like your style! - you know I’ve been campaigning for a hands off approach to Dwayne Wade since before the season started.
When healthy, Wade is a fantasy stud with top 5 player rating potential. He scores, dimes, boards, and plays defense, while leading his team night in and night out. Outside of Lebron James and Kobe Bryant, Wade is as elite a guard as we have in fantasy leagues.
He represents a resurgence of young talented superstars and remains one of the NBA’s most marketable players. Unquestionably his greatest feature is his toughness, and his willingness to play hurt. (Still feel me)
This is a sought after trait in most fantasy circles, except in situations where a player is rushing back from injury, and his style is trademarked by a reckless abandonment every time he laces them up. (Gerald Wallace, put’ya lighters up!)
Simply put, Wade was never healthy this season. The last few times he’s been out on the court he looked more like Omar hobbling around West Baltimore after he jumped from that 5th story apartment window, then an elite shooting guard.
There’s no room for I told you so in this situation, hopefully you were able to deal Wade for .30 cents on the dollar before news of his shut down surfaced Monday. As I mentioned last week, this makes Ricky Davis and Marcus Banks must-add players and savvy owners should keep their eyes on Jason Williams and Daequan Cook.
Pump those breaks a second… Marcus Banks pulled his hamstring on Saturday night and is likely to miss 2 weeks of action. Davis remains a must-add but look for Daequan Cook to get heavy burn in Bank’s absence. He had 23 points Monday night and clearly has the green light to let’em go.
Common wisdom would indicate that White Chocolate should make the most of this opportunity, but with the season wrapped up and the quest for ping pong balls upon Heat fans, why not develop your young talent on the court?
In much less meaningful news, Knicks center Eddy Curry is also likely done for the season. Curry is of borderline fantasy value but his departure will mean David Lee will see a major boost in minutes and on the off chance he isn’t owned in a shallow league, now’s the time to add him.
Zach Randolph returned to action Monday night and with the block all to himself, expect Z-Bo to start eating on the and off the court.
After predicting he would sit out 3 games with a sore knee Chris Bosh has now been on the shelf for 5 straight games. Word on the curb is that Bosh will also sit out the Raptors upcoming road trip before making his return next Wednesday.
In his absence Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon, and Rasho Nesterovic have all stepped up their production and are playing extremely serviceable basketball for fantasy owners. If any of the preceding players are available in your league, they deserve to be added to your roster, at least until Chris is once again on the floor in Toronto.
Gerald Wallace is slated to return to the hardwood Wednesday for the Bobcats potentially limiting the value of Jared Dudley and/or Matt Carroll. Both Carroll and Dudley gave quick acting owners a boost last week but with Crash returning, someone has to take a production hit.
Fantasy owners can rest assured it wont be Jason Richardson who had a monster week on his way to earning the Eastern Conference player of the week honors. G. Wallace is expected to log minutes at small forward to keep his banging inside to a minimum, but I’ll believe that when I see it. Weakside rebounding and defensive habits don’t die easily. It looks like Carroll will return to a 6th man role with the team but fall back with your move until you see what plays out.
After developing a reputation as an extremely injury prone big fella, Zydrunas Ilgauskas has bounced back to become somewhat of a warrior over the past few years. However, back pain has forced him out for an undisclosed period of time and there’s a chance he might shut down for the year.
In his absence Anderson Varejao has been more than serviceable and should be picked up immediately. I recommended owners add him last week but admit it, you weren’t feeling me until he dropped 15 points, 16 boards, 6 dimes, and 4 steals Saturday night. It’s all good, no hard feelings, hopefully he’s still available to help with your playoff run and should be a great 2nd center option until Z’s return.
Go ahead and queue up that T-Mobile commercial where Barkley is mistaken for Wade’s father by the waitress. Remember when he tells Wade, “You hot right now…” That’s the way I feel every time I get an email from a reader asking about Nelly’s latest lineup shakeup. This go’round it’s Mickael Pietrus getting the love, last week it was B. Wright, who’s now getting hooked up with DNP-CDs.
The bottom line is Nelly doesn’t give a sheeeeit about consistency and sticking to the script and beyond Ellis, Jackson, Davis, and Harrington, no one on that roster can be trusted as long as Nelly is popping bud lights and waiving his clipboard after the game.
If Charlie Villanueva is still sitting on the wire in your league, I’m begging you to pick him up. Yi Jianlian is banged up and Charlie is so hot right now (Zoolander).
Bucks management may be showcasing him for an offseason move but I think that would be giving them too much credit, in any event, he’s scoring and rebounding at a high clip and deserves a spot on your roster.
Nenad Krstic and Spencer Hawes aren’t guys you need to add right away. These are players who qualify at center, and are coming on strong with increased minutes as of late. Krstic has finally got his legs under him after missing significant time earlier in the year and is capable of doing big things if healthy and given minutes.
Hawes is another guy benefiting from his team being out of the playoff race and management wanting him to gain valuable experience with what’s left of the season. There’s upside with both guys and monitoring the progress of these two on a game by game basis might land you a very serviceable backup center.
Franchises heading to the lottery have a tendency to rest stars and showcase their young talent. You could argue that deciding a fantasy championship in the final 3-4 weeks of the NBA season is flawed because many players are shut down or limited in minutes to either, rest for next year, showcase other guys, or get ready for the playoffs.
Don’t even sweat that. I’m going to have my third eye on those trends and I’m going to pluck those guys off the wire for you each week in this column. This is the time of year where add/drop becomes a key element to your strategy, so know how many games a free agent plays in a given week, and save some moves to make things happen.
34 Responses to “Fantasy Week 20: Shut It Down”
Mar.11 at 12:38 pm
niQ says:
hawes may be a good late game pick up for his blocks
Mar.11 at 1:11 pm
ciolkstar says:
How bout Julian wright getting some burn in NO? He had 20 and 8 the other night…plus a sick dunk
Mar.11 at 1:24 pm
Dallas J says:
Noooo. Come back Z!
Mar.11 at 1:42 pm
Ben Osborne says:
Emry, can you ghost-manage my fantasy team next year? I will split any winnings.
Mar.11 at 2:22 pm
Jake Appleman says:
Emry, what should I do with Kevin Durant?
Mar.11 at 2:27 pm
Big L says:
Great job as always Emry. Who’s the better pickup: Ericka Dampier or Kendrick Perkins?
Mar.11 at 3:13 pm
Emry DowningHall says:
Niq: Hawes should end up with solid value, he will also likely kill the value of Brad Miller who will be moved this summer one way or another.
Mar.11 at 3:15 pm
Emry DowningHall says:
Ciolkstar: I think Wright is intriguing but while I wouldn’t say he’s not worth monitoring I don’t see the Hornets investing much in him this season… logjam there and that West is so tight, position is key. Also, Scott has a short leash on his rooks.
Mar.11 at 3:15 pm
Emry DowningHall says:
Ben: Ghost management is a forte of mine, no winning split necessary. Just say the word.
Mar.11 at 3:17 pm
Emry DowningHall says:
Jake: Durant forces you to punt fg %, and he’s not the best with turnovers either… I’m not hearing all this rookie of the year love for him either. If you get a chance to see him play, you know what I’m talking about. How is he more worthy than Al Thornton? Depending how deep your league is though he might have to be held. How are your waiver options?
Mar.11 at 3:19 pm
Emry DowningHall says:
Big L: Obliged my man… I like Dampier, Kendrick will have those 20 rebound nights here and there but I think the fact that Damp is really Dallas’s only option at the 5 gives him the go ahead. I don’t know why they wasted that money on Magloire, he couldn’t get off the bench in New Jersey… Dampier is an intrical part of that team like it or love it… He’s also been stepping up his swat game and although Kendrick eats some nights, no doubt… I think Ericka is your guy.
Mar.11 at 4:19 pm
Dominic Brankin-Joly says:
perkisabeast?
Mar.11 at 4:33 pm
Jake Appleman says:
From last month’s totals, i’m looking at Luther Head, Joe Smith, Roger Mason and Amir Johnson.
Mar.11 at 4:33 pm
Jake Appleman says:
and Jared Dudley.
Mar.11 at 4:40 pm
Vincenzo says:
The only droppable player i got are Beno Udrih and eeeehhhhh maybe Mike Bibby. Either of those droppable for say Villenueva, David Lee or Varejeo? Also available in my league is Randy Foye.
Mar.11 at 5:13 pm
Simmy Sosa says:
Emry, Do you think KG will play significant minutes these last few weeks of the regular season or will he rest.
Mar.11 at 5:48 pm
Emry DowningHall says:
Jake: In that case, hold onto Durant and punt FG % and turnovers. Hopefully your surrounding him with bigs and guys who can make up at least the FG % … I lose turnovers every week, it’s just something I decide to do, it’s a necessary evil and although Durant has been disappointing this season he’s far superior to your other options.
Mar.11 at 5:49 pm
Emry DowningHall says:
Simmy: That depends, I love Lee the rest of the year… he’s a stud on the glass and shoots a high field goal percentage. I also like Foye but I wouldn’t drop Udrih or Bibby for either guy. Seems like you’re in a good place… unless you’re stacked for dimes and need boards, in that case Lee makes sense.
Mar.11 at 5:49 pm
Emry DowningHall says:
Sorry, that last one was for Vincenzo
Mar.11 at 5:54 pm
Emry DowningHall says:
Simmy: The lead on Detroit is 4.5 games, that’s a nice cushion but it’s not shut it down mode. I think KG will be solid and being a warrior he wont be apt to shut it down. He’s past his ab injury and I think his production should be high. I think the Celtics have some reservations about pulling the operation back because they want to gel and keep gelling throughout the season and sitting the focal point of their attack wouldn’t serve well. That said his minutes may take a 4th quarter adjustment but I wouldn’t sell him cheap.
Mar.12 at 2:18 am
hursty says:
‘get em high boys’, get em high’. thats right now flip it up high!’.
Mar.12 at 8:07 am
Gerard Himself says:
I picked up Ricky Davis. Almost forgot about him since he was so damn inconsistent earlier this season. Emry, I’m having some doubts here. I made a mistake some weeks ago by dropping Al Thornton (although 10 turnovers in one game last week isn’t really good), but later on I got Hakim Warrick. I dropped Warrick for Davis, but here’s the thing: Months ago, you adviced on taking Travis Outlaw. He’s been playing really well, and was a nice addition to my team. But it seems to me he’s in a slump right now, and Warrick and Charlie V. are still available in my League (are you still with me?). I’m not sure about Charlie - he had 3 good games, but before that he was also very inconsistent. I like Warrick, but to make a long story short: I have faith in Outlaw getting out of his slump soon. What do you think? What’s up with Travis Outlaw?
I still have JR Smith too, I need his 3’s, so I basically want to keep him and Davis…..
Mar.12 at 8:08 am
Gerard Himself says:
I nominate myself for most chaotic post ever. That, and how many names can you mention in one post? I did quite well
Mar.12 at 11:13 am
Emry DowningHall says:
GH: I think I’m with you… Thornton has come on strong but I wouldn’t beat yourself up over that one… dropping Warrick for Davis is a good add. I would rather own Charlie right now than Warrick or Outlaw. He’s actually been a TOP 20 fantasy performer over the past week and with Yi on the shelf he’s absolutely a must own guy right now. It sounds like your league has some quality waiver guys available so worse case scenario if you drop Outlaw and Charlie goes cold you will likely be able to add him. Warrick only played 17 minutes last night, but hopefully that’s just a mis-step. So my advice is to pickup Charlie, drop Outlaw and monitor the progress of both. If you can get 24/16 from a guy off the waiver wire, well… you’re going to give people fits in the playoffs.
Mar.12 at 12:10 pm
pureshooter says:
for Gerard Himself:
Charlie V is gonna be good man. Yi is out and CV is gonna rip it apart. I’d drop somebody for CV dude.
Mar.12 at 12:15 pm
yellowsnow says:
drop joe smith and pick up charlie V.. its my last waiver move because of limits. is charlie playing the rest of the way???
Mar.12 at 1:28 pm
Ol' Marty-Mar says:
Gerard is hanging on to two players strictly out there to “Gets Mines” - JR Smith + Ricky Davis.
Only in Fantasy are the Heat and Knicks the first two teams mentioned in an article written in March.
Em - you gotta settle with the Al Thornton ROTY talk. KD averages 19.5ppg to Al’s 11.8. Durant’s team is muuuuuuuud! LeBron’s rookie season he avg 20.7 pts at 41.7% (KD is 40.7%) LeBron avg. 3.5tpg (KD: 3tpg). Then the next season the King shot up to 27 ppg. So don’t sleep on KD, i think he’ll make a big jump next season too.
Mar.12 at 1:42 pm
waiverbehavior says:
drop joe smith for charlie v.. i have waiver move limit and this is my last move.. just wondering on the amount charlie will produce.. or is it just worth a flier regarless
Mar.12 at 2:26 pm
Emry DowningHall says:
Ok, the Thornton talk is overboard I agree but… be easy with the LBJ comparisons. Lebron shot 40% from the field that year, Kevin is shooting 33%. LBJ also averaged 6 dimes to KD’s 2 … He also rebounded better. Thorntons averages are skewed because he didn’t play in the beginning of the year… my point is only that he could do the same thing as KD if he was on the mud Sonics.
Mar.12 at 3:49 pm
Emry DowningHall says:
YellowSnow: I would make that move… It sucks it’s your last waiver move but, as I said in an earlier response Charlie has been a top 20 fantasy player over the past week. That’s INSANE to get off the wire… you have to make that move.
Mar.12 at 3:50 pm
Emry DowningHall says:
waiverbehavior: Is this the same person as YellowSnow? Same question to a T… either way, look at my last response, in short. Do it.
Mar.12 at 4:32 pm
jon says:
what do you think of Mike Miller’s declining PT?
Mar.12 at 5:15 pm
Gerard Himself says:
thanks all. You guys might be on to something with Charlie V. I think you’re right.
And there’s a dude named yellowsnow? Of all the screennames you could think of….
Mar.12 at 7:22 pm
Emry DowningHall says:
Jon: Miller is a solid player but his time in Memphis is over… grand opening, grand closing. He got decent tick last night but if they are smart they will continue to develop Warrick and there youngins.